Excerpt: THE PROBLEM to estimate capabilities and programs for the development of 700 nautical mile and 1,100 nautical mile ballistic missiles, inter continental ballistic missiles and fleet ballistic missiles, including their major performance characteristics and dates of operational availability.

Excerpt: We believe that the stability and authority of the Soviet regime will not be significantly affected during the period of this estimate by conflicts for power or differences respecting policy within the ruling group. Any internal conflicts arising out of such developments would probably be resolved within the confines of the ruling group and the higher echelons of the communist party and would not lead to civil wars or disturbances of major proportions.

Excerpt: The problem to estimate the role and capabilities of the Soviet theater forces, especially against the NATO area in Europe, at present and over the next two years or so.

Excerpt: Key Judgments Recent political events in Eastern Europe will further erode Soviet confidence in their allies. Moscow can not rely upon non-Soviet Warsaw Pact forces; it must question its ability to bring Soviet reinforcements through East European countries whose hostility is no longer disguised or held in check. On the basis of completed unilateral Warsaw Pact cuts without NATO reciprocation and considering current political turmoil, we now believe that the cap...

Excerpt: Key Judgments; Implementation of the two-year program of unilateral troop reductions announced by Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in December 1988 appears to be roughly on schedule. To date, the Soviets have withdrawn a)- most 2,000 tanks from the German Democratic Republic; however, reorganization and modernization in the Western Group of Forces (WGF) will partially offset the resulting reduction in force capabilities. At the end of 1990, the WGF will consis...

Excerpt: Discussing; This paper presents the latest assessment of the ongoing unilateral Soviet withdrawal of forces from Eastern Europe and reductions in the so-called Atlantic-to-the-Urals (ATTU) zone It provides the latest figures of forces withdrawn and reduced, the current understanding of the restructuring of the forces remaining, and the best estimates of the factors affecting the combat capabilities and potential missions of those residual forces. We have reached...

Excerpt: Discussing Intelligence Community analysts believe that the next decade-following the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) talks-will likely see long-established military, political, and economic relationships between and among European nations and their superpower partners reevaluated and redefined. CFE is an important element in a larger process of enhanced West European economic integration, the assertion of independent European political interests, and the po...

Excerpt: In pursuing their struggle against the west, the Soviet leaders follow a strategy which they call ''peaceful coexistence.'' by this they declare their intention to wage a persistent and aggressive campaign by a variety of means propaganda and political pressure, military threat, economic and scientific competition, subversion and internal war - aimed at the victory of their of their cause on a world scale.

Excerpt: The elevation of the archbishop of Poland 's former royal capital and ancient cultural center -- Krakow -- to the papacy will undoubtedly prove extremely worrisome to Moscow, if only because of the responsiveness his papacy is likely to evoke in east European communist societies. the election of a Polish pope, which reflects the uniquely vital Polish church, will make even more difficult Moscow's traditional attempts to bind culturally western Poland more closel...

Excerpt: MIDDLE EAST

Excerpt: Our current estimate of Soviet grain production for FY1976 of 170 million tons falls about 58 million tons short of requirements. The USSR has so far purchased approximately 16 million tons of foreign grain in FY 76. in addition Moscow undoubtedly will draw grain stocks which we believe do not exceed 10-15 million tons and may be considerably less. these tow factors, taken together narrow the difference between available supply and require ments to a minimum of 27 million tons.

Excerpt: A Soviet military reconnaissance satellite program appears to be well under way with possibly as many as 12 flights since 1962. the program uses recoverable vehicles launched from tyuratam under the antle of the cosmos series.

Excerpt: I. BASIC OBJECTIVES AND TRENDS; The objectives underlying Soviet military policies can be described today in much the same way as a decade ago: preserving the security of the homeland maintaining hegemony over eastern Europe and fostering an image of strength in support of a strong foreign policy aimed at expanding Soviet influence.

Excerpt: The Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) hereby submits this report in response to a Congressionally directed action in Section 721 of the FY 1997 Intelligence Authorization Act, which requires: ?(a) Not later than 6 months after the date of the enactment of this Act, and every 6 months thereafter, the Director of Central Intelligence shall submit to Congress a report on (1) the acquisition by foreign countries during the preceding 6 months of dual-use and oth...

Excerpt: Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade. Baghdad hides large portions of Iraq?s WMD efforts. Revelations after the Gulf war starkly demonstrate the extensive efforts undertaken by Iraq to deny information. Sin...

Excerpt: In past confrontations with the West, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has used thousands of foreign and Iraqi civilians as human shields in bids to manipulate domestic and international opinion and deter military action against his regime. This tactic has produced clear costs and only marginal gains for Saddam, yet he repeatedly has enacted variations of it since Iraq?s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. In late 1990, Saddam held more than 800 Western, Japanese, ...

Excerpt: Editor's note: the CIA's history of the 1953 coup in Iran is made up of the following documents: a historian?s note, a summary introduction a lengthy narrative account written by Dr. Donald n. Wilber, and as appendices, five planning documents he attached.

Description: Introduction The global contest between the United States and the Soviet Union dominated international relations for some 46 years (1945-1991). The cold war confrontation shaped the foreign policies of the united states and the Soviet union, deeply affecting their societies and their foreign policies

Excerpt: Part 1; 1 May 1950 it was just possible that German airfoil vehicles might be ready in limited quantities (less then one hundred) for operational use by the Soviet in 1950.

Excerpt: General secretary Mikhail Gorbachev is off to a strong start. He has consolidated power with unprecedented speed, put in place an ambitious program for economic revitalizations that has already achieved some results, set higher standards of accountability for the bureaucracy and improved the image of the Soviet leadership at home and abroad.